Black Friday to Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025 confirmed a steady pattern for online commerce. Growth is still there, but it is driven less by new shoppers and more by higher average order values, AI-assisted discovery, and flexible payment options across Amazon, D2C, and multichannel retailers.
Across the five-day Cyber Five window, U.S. shoppers spent about 44.2 billion dollars online, with Black Friday around 11.8 billion dollars and Cyber Monday around 14.25 billion dollars, according to Adobe and other trackers.
Cyber Monday remains the single largest online day, but the wider BFCM period is where the real pattern emerges.
Looking ahead to January 2026, often called “Q5,” the data suggests a quieter but still positive environment. Growth is likely to be modest, shaped by returns, gift card usage, and more value oriented spending, rather than another BFCM-style spike.
BFCM 2025 in Numbers
Black Friday Cyber Monday: headline figures
| BFCM total online spend, U.S. | Approximately 44.2 billion dollars, up around 7.7 percent year over year. |
| Black Friday online spend, U.S. | About 11.8 billion dollars, with most purchases on mobile devices. |
| Cyber Monday online spend, U.S. | About 14.25 billion dollars, up roughly 7 percent from 2024 and still the largest single online shopping day by revenue. |
| Device mix | On Cyber Monday, roughly 57 to 58 percent of revenue came from mobile, with some reports putting mobile’s share of Cyber Week traffic above 80 percent. |
RELATED: Holiday Peak Season Logistics: Optimizing December 5–25
The overall picture is one of incremental growth with a shifting mix, not a sudden step change. Mobile continues to move from “important” to “default,” and that has implications for how inventory, delivery promises, and returns are presented to customers.
Want to translate these benchmarks into an operations plan?
Explore Tactical’s multichannel e-commerce order fulfillment to see how we connect Amazon, Shopify, TikTok Shop, and more into one fulfillment flow.
BFCM 2025: Multichannel, D2C, and Social Commerce Results
Amazon and major marketplaces
The 11.8 billion dollar Black Friday figure for U.S. online sales includes Amazon, Walmart.com, Target.com, and other major marketplaces. Amazon again reported “record” BFCM performance without publishing an exact GMV number, which is consistent with previous years.
Operationally, this reflects a few realities:
- Many shoppers now start searches on Amazon or other marketplaces, even if they later buy on a branded site.
- The typical BFCM promotion window on Amazon has stretched to roughly 12 days, from around November 20 to December 1, with a clear early research phase, then Black Friday peak, then Cyber Monday clean up and deal hunting.
- Marketplace demand is increasingly influenced by social content and retail media campaigns that redirect paid and organic traffic into those ecosystems.
D2C and Shopify performance
On the D2C side, Shopify’s BFCM 2025 data shows:
- About 14.6 billion dollars in global GMV across BFCM, up 27 percent year over year.
- More than 80 million consumers buying from Shopify merchants.
- Roughly three quarters of orders placed on mobile devices.
Growth was especially strong in categories like health and wellness, pet products, beauty, and hobby or enthusiast niches. Many of these brands leaned heavily on owned channels, using email and SMS alongside more targeted discount strategies instead of across the board promotions.
Mulitchannel fulfillment made easy. Tactical’s network connects directly to platforms like Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, and TikTok Shop, with real time integrations, so you can plan 2026 logistics in one unified system.
What BFCM 2025 Implies For Q5 2026: Post-Holiday Returns and Beyond
January 2026 is unlikely to mirror BFCM volumes, but most major forecasts suggest a stable environment with modest growth.
Macro outlook
Deloitte’s 2025 holiday forecast expects total retail sales from November through January to grow about 2.9 to 3.4 percent year over year, with e-commerce up 7 to 9 percent.
Translated to January (Q5), this implies:
- Low single digit growth in total retail sales versus January 2025.
- Mid single digit growth online, particularly for categories with recurring demand.
- Pressure on discretionary categories as consumers digest BFCM spending.
The role of returns and exchanges
January typically carries the highest return rates of the year.
This has several effects:
- Net revenue after refunds can underperform order volume growth, especially in apparel, footwear, and gifting categories.
- Warehouse operations must handle a mix of inbound returns, outbound orders, and restock cycles at the same time.
- Cash flow becomes more complex as refunds intersect with reordering and freight payments.
RELATED: How Funding, Inventory, and Logistics Work Together to Drive Growth
Practical Moves For January 2026 and “Q5”
Here are four practical ways to use your BFCM 2025 results to set up a stronger Q5.
1. Treat Q5 as a retention and margin phase
BFCM was a major opportunity not only to attract new customers, but to encourage repeat purchases from existing customers as well.
Given this, as sellers head into “Q5” they should consider the following strategies:
- Use returns and refund emails as touchpoints for exchanges, store credit, and cross sells.
- Build win back and replenishment flows for categories where re-order cycles are short.
- Set targets around profitability and contribution margin, not just top line January revenue.
See real-time inventory updates in the Tactical WMS:
Tactical’s 3PL services are designed to support this kind of retention focus, with integrated returns processing and clear inventory visibility so you can see which SKUs to promote and which to phase down.
2. Prepare for a reverse logistics peak
January is a practical test of your reverse logistics design.
Operational priorities include:
- Clear RMA and disposition rules so warehouse teams can separate items that can be restocked, refurbished, liquidated, or disposed.
- Sufficient receiving and inspection capacity so returns do not block new inbound stock.
- Data feedback loops so your merchandising and sourcing teams see which SKUs are driving the highest return rates by channel.
Trust the experts to handle reverse logistics.
Tactical’s FBA reverse logistics and broader returns workflows are built to move items quickly through inspection and back into the right channel, whether that is FBA, D2C, or liquidation, so January does not become an extended backlog.
3. Rebalance Amazon, D2C, and marketplace inventory with real numbers
BFCM 2025 provides a clean dataset for evaluating channel profitability:
- Fulfillment and storage costs, including Amazon’s 2026 fee changes.
- Inbound and transfer costs such as Amazon AWD versus a third party 3PL cross dock.
- Return rates and markdown intensity in each channel.
For many sellers, the break even between Amazon Warehouse and Distribution (AWD) storage and third party 3PL storage is now closer to two months than three, once new West Coast storage and transportation fees are factored in. That makes your decision about where Q5 inventory sits more important.
Considering a buffer facility between your suppliers and Amazon?
Use Tactical as a flexible staging point for Amazon FBA, FBM, and D2C so you are not locked into a single storage option all quarter.
How Tactical Can Support Your Q5 2026 Plan
Q5 is where the operational details of BFCM either reinforce your growth or erode it. The mix of returns, restocking, and channel shifts can be complex, but you do not need to handle it alone.
Tactical can help you:
- Use bi coastal warehousing and distribution to stage inventory for Amazon, Shopify, TikTok Shop, and wholesale.
- Stand up or expand D2C fulfillment with integrations to your existing tech stack.
- Manage Amazon FBA prep, cross dock, and reverse logistics without overloading your internal team.
- Coordinate with funding partners so freight, duties, and POs are aligned with real demand.
If you share your current channel mix and typical inventory lead times, we can map these BFCM 2025 benchmarks into a specific Q5 2026 logistics plan that fits your business.
Ready to turn BFCM results into a more predictable Q5 and Q1 pipeline?